If we can accept the recent leaks as true and correctly reported by the media (neither of which I would bet the house on, but possibly would make a wager) Fitzgerald has a dead lock on a perjury charge on Libby. He got Valerie Plame's name not from the media, as he claimed and was so often accused by Bush apologists, but from Cheney himself. So it appears that Libby lied. (I suppose he can fall back on the "Huh?" defense, i.e. bad memory, but for my money, he lied.)
Is Cheney in trouble? Not as such from this report. Maybe he didn't know that Mrs. Plame was undercover and mentioned the fact in "innocence". Maybe not. We don't know. We do know that Cheney was extremely misleading in public, though. He kind of threads the needle on lying, but it sure seems like he knew more than he was telling Russert, given the fact he had been briefed on all that just three weeks before. What was it that was said so often during Clinton's numerous investigations - "Where there's smoke, there's fire."
Check out Just One Minute for some intelligent counter proposals. He does a good job bringing up timelines and questions - but he also admits he feels some people are going down for this. Also, for some suppositions about why Fitzgerald is looking into the Niger documents, look at Washington Monthly - I do find it possible, if still nebulous right now. And for some late news that could be rather huge check this out.